Kenya Braces for Mobile Call Rate Drop-down in 2026 as Key Regulation Nears Expiry
Kenya’s telecommunications sector is poised for a major regulatory battle in 2026 as the current mobile termination rate (MTR) framework is set to expire, reigniting long-standing debates over call costs, market competition, and the dominance of industry giants.
The Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) will review the rates that operators charge each other for cross-network calls, a move that could significantly impact the prices millions of Kenyans pay for voice services.
What Are Mobile Termination Rates?
Mobile termination rates (MTRs) are the fees one telecom operator pays another when its customer calls a user on a rival network. These rates directly influence retail call prices, especially for off-network calls.
Currently, the CA caps both mobile and fixed termination rates at KSh 0.41 per minute, a reduction from the previous KSh 0.58. This rate took effect on March 1, 2024, and is scheduled to expire on February 28, 2026.
Why the Upcoming Review Matters
The impending review is not merely procedural—it could reshape Kenya’s telecom landscape. High MTRs tend to disadvantage smaller operators by inflating their operational costs when their customers receive calls from larger networks. This dynamic can reinforce the market strength of dominant players and stifle competition.
In the last review, the CA initially proposed slashing the rate to as low as KSh 0.12 per minute to boost competition and lower retail prices. However, after strong opposition from market leader Safaricom, which warned of significant revenue losses, the regulator settled on the more gradual reduction to KSh 0.41.
A History of Conflict
The previous rate adjustment sparked what industry observers describe as a “protracted battle” between the CA and Safaricom, while rivals Airtel and Telkom Kenya supported the lower rate.
Data from the CA for the quarter ending September 2025 highlights the competitive imbalance: Safaricom handled 61.19% of the sector’s 29.9 billion voice minutes. However, only 7.8% of its calls were off-network. In contrast, Airtel—which held 38.55% of voice traffic—saw 29.3% of its calls terminate on rival networks, reflecting a higher dependence on cross-network connectivity.
Shifting Subscriber Dynamics
Adding intrigue to the coming debate are recent market shifts. According to CA reports, Airtel has been gaining subscribers at a faster rate than Safaricom, with SIM card registrations growing by 6.7% in a recent period. Telkom Kenya, though still a minor player with just 0.12% of voice traffic, also reported that half of its calls were off-network, underscoring its vulnerability to MTR fluctuations.
What to Expect in 2026
When the CA revisits the MTR framework next year, industry analysts expect renewed pressure to lower the rate further. Advocates for reduction argue that it would:
- Lower call costs for consumers
- Enhance competitive fairness, especially for smaller operators
- Encourage network investment and innovation
However, Safaricom is likely to reiterate concerns over revenue impacts, especially as it faces gradual erosion of its voice market share.
The Bottom Line for Kenyans
For everyday mobile users, the outcome of this regulatory showdown could mean more affordable cross-network calls and potentially lower overall voice tariffs. It also represents a critical test for Kenya’s commitment to fostering a balanced and competitive telecommunications environment.
As 2026 approaches, all eyes will be on the CA’s deliberations—and on how Kenya’s telecom giants navigate yet another high-stakes chapter in the nation’s digital evolution.
