The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has given Kenyans a clearer picture of what to expect as the country heads into the October-November-December short rains season. According to KMSA, the rains are expected to be fairly to well distributed across several parts of the country, though residents of Turkana and Samburu counties should prepare for poor to fair rainfall distribution.
The forecast comes at a time when the country is actively stepping up its disaster preparedness measures. KMSA says now is the window for communities and local authorities to act on available weather information before hazards occur. The message is clear: don’t wait for the rains to start before getting ready.
Looking ahead to what the season will bring, KMSA says it will be marked by prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms in several parts of the country. This means Kenyans should expect significant rainfall activity rather than the typical light showers. The met service is projecting above-average downpour and isolated storms in much of Kenya during the short rains season.
Recent rainfall patterns give us a sense of what’s already happening on the ground. Between September 7 and 13, most parts of the country remained dry, but some counties did experience rainfall. Places like Busia, Kisii, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale recorded some rain during this period.
The highest single rainfall event recorded was a seven-day total of 120.7 millimetres at the Busia Ministry of Water Office. Meanwhile, the Mtwapa Meteorological Station recorded the highest 24-hour rainfall amount of 77.1 millimetres on September 11.
Looking at the broader forecast, rainfall amounts have increased in most stations that received rain compared with the previous review period of August 31 to September 6. This trend is expected to continue as we move deeper into the rainy season.
Kenyans should also prepare for temperature variations. Daytime maximum average temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius are expected in several counties including Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit and Turkana. On the other hand, night-time minimum average temperatures below 10 degrees Celsius are expected in some parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyeri, Nakuru, Narok, Taita Taveta and Kajiado.
The detailed forecast indicates that rainfall will be expected in numerous counties across the country between September 15 and 21. These include Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori and Mombasa. Additional counties including Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot are also in the forecast areas.
In some counties like Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir, sunny intervals are expected in the afternoons, which residents should factor into their planning.
KMSA’s message to all Kenyans is straightforward: use available weather information to plan, protect lives and livelihoods, and take action before weather-related hazards occur. The emphasis on turning early warnings into early action underscores the importance of not just hearing the forecast, but actually preparing based on it. With the OND season just around the corner, now is the time for action.
